How climate change affects the distribution of threatened species such as dipterocarps – Thesis Study by FEED Scholar Ma. Rovelyn D. Tumaneng (UPLB)

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FEED Scholar Ma. Rovelyn D. Tumaneng graduation and acknowledgment of sponsors at UPLB, 19 June 2019

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Ma. Rovelyn D. Tumaneng presentation at 1st Kawingan Yabong Seminar, winning Best Poster Thesis

15 June 2019, University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), Laguna.   Ma. Rovelyn D. Tumaneng graduated on th 15th of June this academic year from the UPLB, following the successful completion of her Master’s thesis defence entitled “Modeling Species Distribution of Shorea guiso (Blanco) Blume and Parashorea malaanonan (Blanco) Merr in Mount Makiling Forest Reserve using Maxent”.
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Pictured here with FEED Board Member Dr. Asuncion K. Raymundo and FEED’S other scholar at UPLB John Magbuo during the Recognition of Graduating Scholars and Donor Partners.

The Recognition of Graduating Scholars and Donor Partners was attended by Atty. Eleno O. Peralta, UPLB’s Office of Student Affairs (OSA) Director, Dr. Asuncion K. Raymundo, Professor Emeritus and FEED Board Member and Ms. Jenette Lory T. Estabillo, Head of Student Financial Assistance (SFAD).
THESIS ABSTRACT – Modeling Species Distribution of Shorea guiso (Blanco) Blume and Parashorea malaanonan (Blanco) Merr in Mount Makiling Forest Reserve using Maxent
Climate change is regarded as one of the most significant drivers of loss in biodiversity and altered forest ecosystems. This study aimed to model the current species distribution of two dipterocarp species in Mount Makiling Forest Reserve as well as the future distribution under different climate emission scenarios and global climate models.
Thesis1.pngA machine-learning algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to generate the potential distributions of selected species. The species occurrence records of two dipterocarp species and sets of bioclimatic and physical variables were entered to Maxent software to predict the current and future distribution of the dipterocarp species. The variables were initially reduced and selected using Principal Component Analysis (PCA).
Moreover, two global climate models (GCMs) and climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected to 2050 and 2070 were utilized in the study. The Maxent models of dipterocarp species were evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS).
The models AUC values of Parashorea malaanonan ranges from 0.9885 to 0.9933 while 0.9352 to 0.9860 for Shorea guiso, which is both greater than 0.5 indicating better model prediction than random. Based on the criteria of TSS, models of Bagtikan (Parashorea malaanonan) and Guijo (Shorea guiso) both performed excellent.
Thesis2.pngThe Maxent models predict that suitable areas for Bagtikan will decline by 2050 and 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. On the other hand, Guijo was found to benefit from future climate with increasing suitable areas.
The findings of this study will provide initial understanding on how climate change affects the distribution of threatened species such as dipterocarps. It can also be used as a basis and assist decision-making to better conserve the potential habitat of the species in current and future climate scenarios.
Keywords: species distribution, Maximum Entropy, dipterocarp species, climate change
Out of a total of 5 UPLB specific applicants 2nd semester last year, Ma. Rovelyn D. Tumaneng made it to the cut due to her obvious passion to farm and help her family in Isabela Province restore and optimise the productivity of their own farmlands. Ms. Tumaneng also demonstrated commitment, consistently high marks, and dedication through out there studies. Congratulations and more power to you Ma. Rovelyn!

About FEED Scholars

While FEED receives an average of 50 scholarship applications per year, it relies purely on donations from the public at large through direct scholarship donations from individuals participating in FEED’s part-subsidised Students and Volunteers for the Environment (SAVE) and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) LIVING LEGACY tree-planting engagements throughout the year.  To date, 2 scholars per year have been graduating from the UPLB since the 2000s; another 2 per year from Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University (DMMMSU) in Bacnotan, La Union (Environmental Sciences); 1 from Union Christian College, La Union (Financial Management & FEED’s part-time Book Keeper), 1 at DMMMSU San Fernando City, La Union (Teaching) – all of whom commit to supporting FEED’s programs in a part time capacity during and/or after studies.
Read more about FEED Scholarships here: Scholarships

Contact FEED

FEED runs a number of Students and Volunteers for the Environment (SAVE)Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) – such as mangrove planting for coastal protection or ridge reforestation plantings; One Child, One Tree; Bio-Intensive Gardens (BIG) for nutrition in public elementary schools and other spaces; Climate Change Survival 101 and other LIVING LEGACY programs – customised environmental engagement activities for individuals and organisations interested in contributing to climate change adaptation efforts and greening critical areas such as watersheds, ridges, and reefs that all require rehabilitation.

Tree-Planting with FEED (Video)

Check out the video journey by Clueless Commuter who planted with us last 24th of June 2017 to get a good idea of how FEED plantings go: https://youtu.be/KROn4rjVqBg

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Contact us at FEED for more details, to join our regular activities or to design your own CSR Program: info@feed.org.ph or call/text +63 (0)917 552 4722.

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